Modelling Foot-and-Mouth disease: A comparison of epidemiological models

Introduction Models have been used for some times with the aim of helping in decision making around Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreaks. However, up to very recently, most of these models could mainly be seen as training tools, because Western European and North American countries, as well as Australia and New Zealand, where many of them have been developed, had been free of FMD for many years, or even never experienced the disease like New Zealand. In fact, most of the data used were those collected during the 1967-1968 UK epizootics, under farming conditions certainly different from those prevailing today. More recently, with the sanitary measures –ban on vaccination– implemented over Europe, a new demand arose. However, most of the models were still used either as tools to better understand FMD virus transmission including airborne transmission, to mimic an outbreak, for training purposes, or to compare economical scenarios. The 2001 epizootics, bringing a lot of new data about FMD transmission under today farming conditions, was the occasion for new modelling. In the UK, during 2001, different models were run and published, with conclusions used to control the disease by the authorities. Here we try to present and to compare these models, from what has been published.